Global Powers and Small Nations........................... (Part-I)

(A verse from the famous book of famous politician & writer Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto)

Since the end of the Second World War, a new political situation has developed which, perhaps because it is so evident, is not always seen in its correct perspective and its implications sufficiently understood. Up to now it could be said that the Great Powers are:

1. The United States of America


2. The People’s Republic of China


3. The United Kingdom


4. France


5. Germany


6. The Soviet Union


7. Japan


8. Italy

The traditional method of conducting foreign affairs in the nineteenth and the first half of the twentieth centuries was by means of regional alliances formed to maintain a balance of power among the grouping of the Great Powers with the assistance of the smaller nations. Peace was preserved by maintaining this very delicate balance, and peace was disturbed only when the balance, at any given time, tilted in favor of one group or the other. In those days, the smaller nations could influence the policy and the alignment of Great Powers by indulging in various political permutations and combinations.

 

All this has changed today with the emergence of Global Powers which, in addition to having all the attributes of Great Powers in the classical sense, are at the same time much more powerful and play a larger role in determining the destinies of people all over the world. The emergence of these Powers in the last twenty years has changed the whole concept of conducting affairs of state. The task of smaller nations, in which category all the developing nations fall, in determining their relationship with Global Powers and in furthering their national interests has become more complex and difficult. The small nation which does not understand the new rules of diplomacy is doomed to frustration, a sense of helplessness, isolation and, perhaps, eventual extinction. As a developing nation, Pakistan must understand how to conduct its affairs in this new situation.

 

What is a Great Power today and what was a Great Power only a few decades ago is a distinction worth examining. In the imperial age the area of influence  and  control  of  a  Great  Power  was  regional  rather  than  global. Alexander the Great sought to conquer the world, but his world was a small one.

 

The Roman legions swept across Europe and parts of Asia and Africa, but there was more to the world than the lands where the mandate of Rome prevailed. Charlemagne held sway over Europe, but the political Europe of his day did not extend to very Far-East. Ghengiz Khan's hordes galloped across Asia and parts of Europe, but their conquests were of no lasting consequence to the world at large. Napoleon dreamt of a world order that met its doom in the ashes of Moscow. Hitler was moved by a similar ambition, but he too was driven back from the gates of Moscow.

 

From Alexander to Hitler, many a conqueror set out to subjugate the world but failed. Enormous territories in more than one continent did come under the yoke of one imperial Power or another, but not for long. The sun did not set on the vast British Empire, but even at the height of their power the British had to contend with the ambitions of other imperial Powers— notably, those of Spain, France, and Germany—so that the world neither fell under the hegemony of any one imperial Power, nor was divided by a pact between two Super-Powers. At the end of the Second World War, when the Axis Powers were shattered, the Allied armies had the world at their command; but, even before hostilities had ended, the conflict of interests between Allied Powers and Soviet Russia became apparent. The authority of the old imperialist Powers like Britain, France, and the Netherlands had diminished to such an extent that they were soon forced to relinquish their overseas empires. Into this void stepped the only two Powers which had emerged strong and victorious out of the Second World War—the United States and the Soviet Union. Inexorably filling the political vacuum, they pushed forward their areas of influence both in the east and in the west. In the west, they reached and confronted each other in Berlin and central Europe. In the east, the Soviets extended their influence to the Pacific; while the United States moved into Japan and the Philippines, and temporarily bolstered up the dying French Empire in south-east Asia. Since, traditionally, the United States had not been an imperialist Power in the sense of physically occupying foreign territories— except for the Philippines and some dependencies in the Caribbean—and since the Soviet Union, by reason of its doctrine of Marxism, also could not justify physical possession of foreign territory, a new type of struggle  emerged.  This was the beginning of neo-colonialism.  It no longer became necessary to control the destinies of smaller countries by any jurisdiction over their territories.

 

The main purpose of imperialism was to exploit the resources of the colonies.  Vast territories were divided and distributed among the imperial Powers, which then drained the resources of the subject peoples. With the end of imperialism in its classical form, only the system of exploitation underwent a transformation. As the colonial Powers withdrew from their colonies, the policy of divide and rule became obsolete and was replaced by that of unite and rule to meet the challenge of new times, although to achieve the same objective. The changed conditions necessitated a change in the method.  In  the  past  the colonies  were  exploited  separately  by  each  imperial  Power.  Now that these

Powers have vacated their possessions; it has become necessary for them to merge the resources of the former colonies into groupings for better collective exploitation. As the position of the exploiters has changed, so also it has become necessary to change that of the exploited. Previously the imperial Powers went separately about their missions of exploitation.  Now that they have joined together for their common advantage, it becomes equally necessary for them that their former colonies should pool their resources to facilitate exploitation. The new situation calls for corresponding adjustments both in the former colonies and in the former colonizing countries to make market conditions more suitable for exploitation. Larger markets generate greater exports and imports on terms favorable to the advanced nations of the West. They encourage increased consumption of goods and a more systematic exploitation of resources. They facilitate the manipulation of prices internationally. There are many advantages, most of them accruing to the former colonial Powers. The security interests of the free world are better served, but economic exploitation remains the principal concern. This is the inevitable adjustment in the transition from colonialism to neo-colonialism, which is why our independence remains a myth.

Misbah & Eleven to take a crucial challenge with world No. 1 Team (South Africa)

ISLAMABAD: After losing from Zimbabwe in Zimbabwe, Pakistan’s cricket team, known for its unpredictability, is all ready to take on the world’s number one test side (South Africa), which is surely predictable in dealing her opponents aggressively and with some quality cricket. Loosing from Zimbabwe in Zimbabwe abroad has demoralized the Pakistani Players and also the Cricket but the dream that is yet to come true is thrashing South Africa in Dubai (Sharjha, Neutral venue). South African Team and also the players are in tremendous form and they can cope in any type of situations. They are very strong in all aspects and can beat any team of the world, but the Pakistani Team is popular for its unpredictability.

 

On the other hand, confidence of the national squad is touching the depth, as it has always been, after losing from a very low test rank side (i.e. Zimbabwe test ranking#9). However, their biggest test will start on October 14. The Sharjha weather conditions and pitches are very much similar to that of Pakistan but the Pakistan team should not take it easy to deal with. The crumbling batting line up of Pakistan will surely be tested by the fast and aggressive pace attack of the visitors.
Pakistan is in very poor position because it had not take to play too much test matches as compare to South Africa and resilient South Africans seems like a roaring loin in test cricket, Pakistan should not take it be a piece of cake.


If we look at the past record, 21 test matches have so far been played between the two sides, of which, ten were won by South Africa and three by Pakistan while seen remained draw. Moreover, out of the eight test series between the two top cricket nations, South Africa bagged five, Pakistan one while two were drawn.
However, this is the time for Pakistan to bounce back to their form and give a tough time to South Africa. Some of the key players are enjoying batting including Captain Misba-ul-Haq, Younus Khan and the young, enthusiastic emerging talent of Junaid Khan, Saeed Ajmal, Abdur Rehman and lanky fast bowler Muhammad Irfan etc.
On slow, and spin wickets of Abu Dhabi, Saeed Ajmal and Abdu Rehman together with the Junaid Khan and Muhammad Irfan could prove to be the lethal weapons for Pakistan. Being a spin bowler performance of Saeed Ajmal from the last few years is outstanding; the confidence should be rocketed high. All they need is to transform that confidence into a really good performance to make history for their side.
The seven feet one Irfan is a wonderful addition to the team having pace and extra bounce, however, it will be interesting to see how Misbah will use him in the test series.
“The team is a nice blend of senior and junior players but the exit of Muhammad Hafeez is beneficial for him and also for the squad to give a chance to the young blood,” said Moin Khan, the Pakistani cricket team manager.
The young cricket who performed well in the domestic season has a very good chance to perform well and prove themselves as the future treasure for Pakistani cricket team. Umar Amin and Shaun Maqsood seems very positive to their selection and they performed well in the domestic season, but now they required to prove themselves on international level. Batting department of the national team has always been a matter of concern especially especially against seam bowler like Dale Styne and Mone Morkel. The performance of some of the players has been praise-worthy in past series against Zimbabwe including Misbah, Younus Khan and Khurram Manzoor, however, it is the time that youngsters including Azhar Ali, Asad Shafiq, Umar Amin and Adnan Akmal will also have to take responsibility and lead from the front.
“There should have been a batting coach with the team as we all know that Pakistan’s batting is weak and if the national side loses, it will only be because of her batting,” said former test cricketer, Zaheer Abbas.
He said South Africa was really a tough side equally good in all three departments including batting, bowling and fielding. Because, they have world No.1 & 2 batsmen i.e. Hashim Amla and AB Deviliars and world fast bowler like Dale Styne. The spin bowling department of South Africa is also not bad they have some quality spin bowler also like Imran Tahir.
The tour will demonstrate where Pakistan stands in test cricket as she will have to play beyond her abilities to defeat a team like South Africa.

Useless Advantage of rupee Depreciation

“Someone’s pain is someone’s gain”. A famous proverb I am quoting here just to enlighten a fact about what’s going here in our lovely country. Policy makers are trying to reduce budget deficit. For this purpose they are using different tools like increase in taxes, printing money and taking loans. The first two tools are reasonable and the last one can be dangerous. But one disadvantage with printing of money is it devalues rupee and as a result inflation increases. Same case is going here in Pakistan, inflation is touching its peaks and rupee is depreciating against US dollar day by day.

The rupee fell sharply against dollar in the currency market during the last month. In the interbank market, rupee lost 61 paisa in relation to dollar for buying at Rs 105.68 and it also fell by 62 paisa for selling at Rs 105.72.In the open market it lost Rs 1.10 versus dollar for buying and selling at Rs 106.70 and Rs 106.90. The rupee also came down sharply in relation to euro, losing RS 3.20 for buying and selling at Rs 143.50 and Rs 143.75.The rupee went down steeply versus the dollar due to some speculative buying of dollars. Since the new government came in to power, the rupee has lost over 7 percent against the dollar. The rupee has touched low level at Rs 107 versus the dollar.

Present situation of rupee have raised many questions and have badly affected Pakistan economy. Import products prices are increasing with increasing rate and people in Pakistan are suffering from this uncertain situation. Anyhow as we know every action has a reaction or every action has some good and bad aspects. Some investors in economy are going to better off. So, can anyone answer me that who will be happy about the deteriorating value of our precious and respected rupee? Yes there are some people in the economy who are happy with deteriorating nature of rupee. Economic theory suggests exporters should be laughing over this phenomenon. While being introduced to economics for the first time, we’ve all been taught that a weaker domestic currency brings down the international price of that country’s exports goods, thus making them more competitive and cheaper in global markets. The demand for domestic products increases and hence it causes to enhance our exports and increase in foreign exchange reserves as well.

On the other hand, imports get dearer. So over time an economy whose currency is dwindling cuts back on imports and boost up exports thus improving its external accounts and creating international demand for its currency. This is also a tool which policy makers use to discourage imports and increase domestic demand for domestic products as well.

But unfortunately in case of Pakistan’s major exports like textiles make known something is wrong. While the rupee is depreciating continuously against US dollar since the start of 2008 and more especially nowadays, the quantity of textile exports has not grown in cycle with the declining worth of the local currency. So what are the main reasons which restrict exports from growth? In textile products many inputs are imported from foreign and stressed value of rupee make them expensive which causes prices of final goods to increase. And hence no positive change in the international market prices of domestic goods which do not attract foreign buyers and exports remain the same. Second reason is political instability and terrorism which discourage foreign investors and compel them to shift their capital outside Pakistan. This affects negatively the overall output level and exports show no positive change. Third and most important reason is energy crisis; reliance on diesel power generators increased and cost of running a factory on a diesel-powered generator is much higher than electricity from the grid. This also results increase in final goods prices and domestic goods become more expensive in international market pushing away buyers and discourages domestic exporters.

 

By: Muhammad Saqib Yousafzai.

WAR AGAINST TERRORISM: IS IT OUR WAR?

On should give straight answer to such type of questions with “yes” or “no”, because here is flexibility to answer it as “I don’t know”. War is very dangerous word and everyone hates to hear, and that’s why one could easily deduce to answer to the question.

The 9/11 attacks on World Trade Center had introduced the world with a new phrase i.e. “War on Terror”. Several surveys show the doubts of American citizens towards the incident of 9/11. The American citizens are not sure that the incident is true such as the American media presents it. If the American citizens have doubted the incident how can they make us believe in their lies?

 “War on Terror” in general terms is actually the start of the Americans’ global campaign against the one who opposes her hegemonic strategy. Its primary purpose is to acquire enough resources to support its global leadership syndrome in view of the emerging realities. The other purpose of that event was to weaken Islam and Muslim Country and to hold them under-pressure and not to leave them to live freely. And that’s why in the current age, about in all Muslim country the economic and political situations are worst.

Historically, it is proved that in the global superpower confrontation, the weaker ones have options like “with us or without us”.

Viewed in this perspective, Pakistan does not have much option except limited and localized role in this war because of our Geo strategic location where we share common stance against terrorism for the sake of restoring peace in the region which consecutively helped us to bolster our “National Interest”. However, “War” on our own soil where small groups of preposterous miscreants seek to exploit religion to make the mainstream public hostage to their vested agenda is our own “War” that has been injected by the CIA and its affiliates through Blackwater etc. It was not laxity but people talk of open connivance of some of the functionaries of the PPP regime.

The way this war has been injected and ignited against Pakistan, there is a possibility that even after the withdrawal of US led forces; Pakistan may still be in the thick of this war. India has been and still is active against Pakistan through Afghanistan that Mian Nawaz Sharif keeps in mind before showing anxiety to normalize the relations.

How could it be somebody else’s war? They have raised weapons against the government and challenging its writ. Their malicious activities have made us suffer a lot from ineffaceable loss ranging from precious human lives to the country’s economy. Right today when the stage for talks has been set, TTP have attacked and taken out a Major General and his staff officer. After some days i.e. on 22.09.2013 a suicide attack took place in the Capital of Khyber Pakhtunka in the Minority Christian Church near Kohati Gate; under what compulsions and why needs an answer.

Despite all this bloodshed, some factions in our society are still in doubt to recognize it as “Our War”. They must think before declaring it “someone else’s war” because they will not be able to digest it if their own sons become victims of this war. It is clear that it is “our war”. But this is such type of war games which is playing on our own soil/homeland. It destroyed our economic, political and social structure. Now it is the responsibility to negotiate this issue with the miscreants by dialogue process. In this respect the Government needs to call the APC (All Parties Conference) quickly to draw an appropriate solution, and not to go worsen these bad situations.

It is a ray of hope that the new Government is keen in dialogue with the miscreants and they are in mode in bargaining position with them.

Extreme violence, social disruption, moral disgraces and economic destruction are the outcomes of warfare and if all these elements are present in any society then it should declare “WAR”. Therefore say it loud and clear, “It is a WAR and Yes! It is our WAR.”

We the Pakistani Nations need peace. Now we have declare it a “WAR” then we should responded it by war because both they are interconnected in all dimensions. The ruler of United Kingdom (during 2^nd world war) Vanstone Churchill said a historic quote, “If u want peace, prepare yourself for war”. Preparation of war leads to the better strategy that ultimately results in the victory. Formulation of strategy requires priorities. The best strategy is to attack the enemy’s strategy.

Electricity and Petrol bombs ready to blast soon

It has been long time that Pakistan economy is undergoing many evils like terrorism, corruption and political instability. Every morning when people wake up, they look in to the headlines just to know either any new evil has come in or not. The most important among these is inflation which Pakistani economists try to overcome but in vain due to many reasons like corruption etc. People living in this country are unable to fulfill basic needs of everyday life. And hence newly terrorist activities (suicides, kidnapping, murdering, robberies etc) take place which weakens social and economic situations of the people day by day. According to an international report many Pakistanis are living under the poverty line. The poor are becoming poorest and the rich class is becoming richest. Anyway this is the area of great discussion and we should be restricted to our topic about the new evil of energy prices. I would like to share a short story in this aspect, when I was in bachelor, one of our teachers used to say that every economic theory and policy fails to work in Pakistan economy. I some time thought that our teacher is lying but today I accept that he was right. Behind every success and failure there is an invisible hand and in case of Pakistan that invisible hand is political virus which has become so healthy that it works everywhere if it is politics, sports, education, health or any other activity which are for social welfare.  In this regard a famous economic theory comes to my mind “Phillips theory/curve”, which states that inflation and unemployment are inversely proportional. It means that if one increases the other one will definitely decrease and vice versa. But in case of Pakistan the theory fails because both these evils are chasing the peaks and moving positively in the same direction. Leaders and economist are trying to overcome but they fail every time and I finally remind the famous saying of our teacher that every theory fails in Pakistan.

Nowadays the government is busy in preparing another bomb for blast before Eid-ul-azha. According to a newspaper headline, oil and electricity prices are likely to increase from start of October. The newspaper reported that 4 Rs per liter oil product prices will increase which will also enhance the prices of electricity up to 30% and people would have to face another tsunami of inflation. Officially it is announced that increase in energy prices are due to international market oil prices but the fact is, government has taken new loan from IMF and this is conditionality from International Monetary Fund (IMF) to trim down subsidies in energy sector. Our respected finance minister says that Pakistan economy will not be defaulted and we will return the whole loans on time and economic situation of people will be better off but he should think upon it that people living in this country will bear the whole cost and will worsen the economic life of people. This fresh decision of government will lead inflation to cross all limits. People are already hanged in many economic problems, living under the poverty line and this decision will extremely hurt them which will result to commit suicide. Every day we listen about unwanted events of murders, robberies and suicides which are likely to be enhanced by these two bombs. Instead of a cut in energy sector subsidies government should reduce their own expenditures and stop hurting people because they are unable to bear any new costs.

100 days tenure of the PML(N) Government

PESHAWAR: New Government of Pakistan (PML-N) under the leadership of Nawaz Sharif has just completed its tenure of 100 days on (19.09.2013). Before General Election, PML-N made huge claims and promises to the people that they will facilitate poor people of Pakistan by controlling Inflation, by reviving economy, creating job opportunities, by Tax reforms, by overcoming energy crisis, diminish load-shedding by constructing new dams etc.

After 100 days, it seems that the Govt: is yet to facilitate the expectation of people and moreover the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave Pakistan a sobering assessment, saying its economy was at a high risk of deteriorating into crisis and growth was too slow to significantly improve people's living standards. The Govt: is seems totally fail and not serious in solving these problems.

The opposition leader pointed out that the PML-N previous five-year and present 100-day rule in Pakistan had only worsened the situation of the common man. "The administrative failure has led to increase in crime and other problems in the country”. The government has failed to control prices of eatables items and in this connection no steps are taken. About 62 percent rise in crime rate. A report supported these findings by stating that 62 percent of the people had lost trust in the present government for failing to address issues pertaining to price hike, deteriorating law and order situation and unemployment.

In fact, Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif and Punjab Chief Minister Main Shahbaz Sharif had already completed their homework with farsightedness before coming into power that enabled them to start work on projects from day one for bringing massive reduction in load-shedding and taking on terrorism with discretion and consensus. That is why it did not take the government many days to clear the Rs480 billion circular debt of the power sector besides reviving the badly stalemated Nandipur Hydel Project and accelerating the Neelum Jhelum hydro power project. Both will generate 1300 plus megawatts of electricity. In the latter project, the prime minister personally intervened and passed instructions for immediate initiation of work on the transmission or distribution system that would have otherwise taken additional two, three years after commissioning of the project.

 

All these efforts might not be clearly visible to some myopic people but the fact is that all the good developments experienced in the last few weeks in the form of APC and power sector reforms, were the outcome of incessant, intelligent work done by PML-N leadership and its team of ministers, experts and other functionaries.

 

However, the masses as a whole do possess the ability to judge their leaders given their (of the public) much enhanced prudence that was exercised by the general public at the time of election of their representatives. It was this public prudence that brought PML-N into power and it is the same public wisdom that has now adjudged Nawaz Sharif government in the Centre and Shahbaz Sharif government in Punjab as gaining popularity and recognition among their people.

 

Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT) has drawn a candid picture of political leaders’ popularity among the masses with credible public opinion polls in its Public Verdict (Survey) on Performance of Governance and Democracy in First 100 Days of Federal and Provincial Governments.

 

Of course, this credibility factor is very important because a number of opinion polls conducted by some other setups have not proved credible in the past but for PILDAT surveys. As a matter of fact, PILDAT surveys are scientific and logical in approach and are conducted in a transparent manner besides being focused on most current and relevant issues about which common people are most of the times concerned.

 

As for the instant survey, it has been brought to the fore by PILDAT on the International Day of Democracy that is observed every year on September 15.

 

According to the survey, 62% people have given positive rating to governance by the Federal Government led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Likewise, according to the public opinion given in the survey, the Punjab government got the best rating out of the four provincial governments while the Sindh government was given the poorest rating. In this survey, citizens from all the provinces voted irrespective of their province of residence. The resultant findings show that 59% voted in favor of Shahbaz Sharif as the best performing Chief Minister, followed by Syed Qaim Ali Shah at 18%, Pervez Khattak at 9% and Dr Abdul Malik at 4%.

 

Some keen observers opine that Shahbaz Sharif is most popular in Baluchistan although it is usual with the provinces that the most popular heads of governments in their respective areas are their own elected CMs. And in other two provinces, namely Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, chief minister Punjab is a close second choice of public.

 

Most encouraging aspect of this survey is that the people of Pakistan have demonstrated considerable maturity and understanding of issues including inter-institutional harmony and foreign policy that they think have been excellently handled by PM Nawaz Sharif.

 

The PILDAT survey says: “The prime minister’s policy of seeking harmony with the armed forces and opposition parties and also with the provincial governments led by the parties that are in opposition at the federal level, has received the highest rate of approval”. The survey adds: “With the change of government on June 5, after the May 11 elections, more people (44%) are optimistic about federal government’s ability to address the current issues.”

 

In the area of terrorism too, Nawaz government got good performance rating as 46 per cent surveyed people gave fully appreciated its plans and efforts in dealing with the issue of terrorism. And in the electricity sector, 52 per cent gave it positive rating for coping with the electricity shortage.

 

As for its performance on key foreign policy issues, including relations with the United States, China and India, the government was given 57 per cent positive rating.

 

The positive performance rating achieved by the Federal Government on the inter-provincial harmony was 59 per cent. It also got 59 per cent positive rating on harmonious relations with the opposition parties in parliament.

 

For creating harmony with the armed forces, the government achieved 58 percent positive rating. Likewise, 54 percent people gave positive performance rating to the Federal Government in dealing with the problem of corruption.

 

In all, the people of Pakistan have once again reposed their confidence in the competence and prudent planning and working of Nawaz government in the Centre and Shahbaz government in Punjab. One can only wish that this momentum is maintained in the days to come not only for a limited period of 100 days but throughout the mandated term of the elected government.

UN Chief Shocked by Peshawar Church attack

UNITED NATIONS, Sept 22 (APP):

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon strongly condemned Sunday’s “atrocious” terrorist attack on a church in Peshawar, and called on Pakistani government to bring the perpetrators to justice.

A statement issued by UN Spokesman Martin Nesirky said that the secretary-general was “appalled” by the attack, which had reportedly killed more than 75 people and wounded over 100 others as they were attending Sunday mass. “The Secretary-General condemns this atrocious bombing attack in the strongest possible terms,” the statement said.